Trump’s populist appeal resonates with many South Africans, drawing parallels to the political style of former President Jacob Zuma. Both figures position themselves as champions of the ordinary person, directly addressing the concerns of the masses. However, as we consider the potential implications of a Trump victory, it is crucial to scrutinise the economic policies he championed during his presidency.

From 2017 to 2021, Trump implemented several economic strategies that could impact South Africa significantly. The 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which lowered the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21% and reduced individual income taxes, aimed to stimulate economic growth by increasing disposable income. While a flourishing U.S. economy could boost demand for South African exports, we must ask ourselves: at what cost?

Trump’s aggressive rollback of federal regulations aimed to create a business-friendly environment, potentially benefiting South African companies looking to tap into the U.S. market. However, we must question whether this approach serves our long-term interests, particularly if it leads to environmental and social drawbacks.

Moreover, Trump’s protectionist trade policies pose serious concerns for South Africa. His withdrawal from international agreements and emphasis on an “America First” agenda threaten the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), vital for our exports. In this increasingly nationalist climate, we need to consider how to safeguard our economic interests.

By prioritising domestic production, Trump’s policies could inadvertently disadvantage South African exporters. If American companies focus solely on local sourcing, where does that leave us in the global supply chain? Additionally, the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted economies worldwide, and Trump’s handling of the crisis had significant repercussions. The stimulus packages he introduced to revive the economy might provide valuable lessons for South Africa as we navigate our recovery.

As we approach the elections, we stand at a critical juncture. In short, Trump is expected to take an aggressive stance, possibly imposing sanctions as he seeks to regain lost ground from his previous term. He has made strong statements on Ukraine and Gaza, claiming these issues would not have escalated if he were president and promising to address them. If South Africa continues aligning with Russia or takes a hard stance on Gaza, the U.S. response might not be favourable.

If Trump wins, his policies may initially boost the U.S. economy, but the resulting inflation and higher interest rates could strengthen the dollar and weaken the rand. This would complicate our export landscape and increase import costs, straining our already fragile economy. Conversely, a victory for Kamala Harris could lead to a weaker dollar, potentially strengthening the rand. While this shift might benefit South African exports, we must remain cautious. Harris’s multilateral approach to trade could open up new opportunities, though we must be ready to adapt. If Harris wins, and stability prevails, this may feel like a return to familiar dynamics.

The U.S.-South Africa relationship transcends mere economic exchange; it reflects our interconnected world. The outcome of the upcoming elections will undoubtedly reverberate through our economy and influence our global standing. We must remain vigilant and proactive, recognising that the political climate in the U.S. can have real-world consequences for us.

As South Africans, it is our responsibility to engage critically with these issues and advocate for policies that protect our economic interests. We must not be passive observers; instead, we should actively participate in shaping the discourse around our economic future.

In a time when political tensions run high and economic uncertainties abound, let us unite in our pursuit of a stable and prosperous South Africa. The road ahead may be fraught with challenges, but by staying informed and engaged, we can navigate these turbulent waters and ensure a brighter future for all.