From Trump’s Venezuela takeover to falling markets and booming car sales: the forces reshaping South Africa’s economy
Relations between Washington and Pretoria are fragile, shaped by diplomatic tension, growing global uncertainty and stark public protest. On Thursday, dozens of people gathered outside the United States Embassy in Pretoria to condemn the US intervention in Venezuela and the capture of former president Nicolás Maduro, highlighting deep local opposition to what many see as American overreach.
The demonstration was led by members of the South African Communist Party (SACP), an ally of the ruling African National Congress. Protesters carried placards reading “Hands Off Venezuela” and “End American Imperialism,” accusing US President Donald Trump’s administration of acting unlawfully and of seeking control over Venezuela’s vast oil reserves. Trade unions, student groups, and civil society organisations joined the rally, warning that this kind of foreign intervention could set a dangerous precedent for other nations in the Global South.
Yet, while the protests highlight political tension between South Africa and the United States, Trump’s dramatic intervention may also have offered an unintentional economic benefit to South Africa. By pushing Venezuelan oil back into global markets, the move has helped lower oil prices — a relief for an oil-importing nation facing high fuel costs and inflation.
Earlier this month, US forces captured Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, and brought them to New York to face drugtrafficking charges. In the days that followed, the Trump administration said it would control Venezuelan oil sales “indefinitely,” tapping into between 30 million and 50 million barrels of crude and managing exports through U.S.-run channels.
Trump framed the policy as a way to rebuild Venezuela’s damaged oil industry, stimulate global supply, and reduce energy costs for both Venezuelans and Americans. To critics, however, the operation represents a stark assertion of U.S. influence over a sovereign nation’s natural resources.
For South Africa, cheaper oil means lower petrol and diesel prices, which can reduce inflationary pressure and ease household budgets already stretched by slow economic growth.
Professor Theo Venter of NorthWest University says that while Trump’s actions are mainly driven by U.S. domestic political aims ahead of upcoming elections, South African consumers stand to benefit from reduced transport and energy costs.
“That impact can be significant for a country that imports much of its fuel,” Venter said.
A shift in global oil power
According to Nigel Green, chief executive of financial advisory firm deVere Group, US control over Venezuelan oil could reshape the global energy market. While Opec remains an important force, Green argues that political power is beginning to rival cartel control when it comes to oil pricing.
He says U.S. oil refiners are positioning themselves to gain a strong advantage if access to Venezuelan oil is expanded. Companies such as Chevron are seeking wider operating licences, while Citgo Petroleum could resume crude purchases. This has triggered renewed competition for supply.
U.S. Gulf Coast refineries are particularly well-suited to process Venezuela’s heavy crude oil. Years of sanctions have kept these supplies off the market, forcing refiners to source more expensive alternatives. If Venezuelan oil becomes widely available again, US refiners would benefit from lower costs and higher profits.
Green warns that this development weakens Opec’s grip on the market. “Opec controls oil production, but Washington controls licences,” he says. “When political decisions determine who can buy oil, the balance of power changes.”
Local markets pull back as mining stocks fall
Against this international backdrop, South African markets ended Thursday weaker as investors took profits after a strong start to the year. The JSE All Share Index fell 0.79% to close at 116,989 points. The market opened higher but lost momentum as the day progressed.
The decline was driven mainly by mining shares. The resource index dropped 2.64% as prices for key commodities such as platinum, gold and oil moved lower. Shares in companies including Implats, Northam, Sibanye-Stillwater and Anglo American came under pressure, reflecting the market’s close link to global commodity prices.
Financial shares helped limit the overall decline. The banking and insurance sector rose 0.30% as investors moved into more stable, income-generating stocks. This suggests confidence in the local interest-rate outlook and in the strength of financial institutions.
Consumer-focused sectors performed better, with gains in beverages, personal goods and food producers. Shares such as AB InBev, Richemont, and Tiger Brands attracted buyers as investors favoured companies with steady earnings and strong brands. Overall trading activity remained focused on large, well-known companies, indicating adjustment rather than panic selling.
Rand steady, global markets mixed
The rand traded in a narrow range, with the dollar holding near R16.52. The euro and British pound also showed little movement, keeping currency markets relatively calm.
International markets sent mixed signals. Asian markets cooled after recent gains, with Japan’s Nikkei easing from record levels. European markets were slightly weaker as investors assessed economic data and central-bank comments. In the U.S., major indices remained near highs but showed limited direction, suggesting caution rather than confidence.
In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin slipped below $91,000, extending a period of sideways trading after strong gains last year. Other digital currencies, including Ethereum and Solana, also traded with small moves, reflecting a pause in risk-taking across global markets.
Vehicle sales surge as consumers return
In the real economy, South Africa’s new vehicle market rebounded strongly in 2025, surpassing pre-pandemic levels and hitting a decade-high, supported by lower inflation, rate cuts, and more affordable models.
December sales reached 48,983 units, with passenger cars up 20% and light commercial vehicles also increasing, while trucks and buses lagged behind.
Toyota led sales, followed by Volkswagen and Suzuki, while Chinese brands such as GWM, Chery, and Omoda experienced steady growth.
Indian manufacturer Mahindra stood out, selling 1,234 vehicles — more than Nissan, BMW, and Stellantis — and ranking among the top ten for the year, boosted by demand for small SUVs and a new Durban assembly plant. Naamsa forecasts 9–11% growth in 2026, supported by higher household income and modest GDP gains.
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