SONA 2026 — the Ultimate Test of Credibility
President Cyril Ramaphosa needs to be aware that his upcoming State of the Nation Address (SONA) will be judged less by its rhetoric and more by its ability to speak directly to the country’s economic reality. Thys van Zyl, CEO of Everest Advisory Services, says South Africa enters this year’s SONA at a moment of unusual pressure, not just from within its borders, but from a rapidly shifting global order.
‘Internationally, trade wars are intensifying, geopolitical conflicts continue to disrupt supply chains, and economic alliances are becoming more rigid. Domestically, South Africa remains trapped in a familiar cycle: low growth, high unemployment, rising household pressure, and growing public frustration,’ he says.
Van Zyl says the time for slogans, recycled plans and ideological reassurances are over. ‘South Africans, amongst others, want clear job creation targets, energy and infrastructure delivery dates, trade strategies that safeguard employment, cost-of-living relief that is felt, not theoretical, and accountability for service delivery.’
Growth: Positive, but Inadequate
Van Zyl says both the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund have tagged South Africa’s economy as growing, but only marginally. Current projections place GDP growth between 1.2% and 1.7%, far below the 3–4% threshold required to materially reduce unemployment and raise living standards.
‘At these levels, the economy is stabilising — not transforming. Without a sharp rise in fixed investment, particularly in energy, logistics, and manufacturing, growth will remain insufficient to absorb new labour market entrants. What South Africans want to hear is not optimism, but a credible plan to lift growth above 3%, supported by timelines, funding clarity, and private-sector participation,’ Van Zyl says.
Unemployment: The Defining Crisis
Van Zyl says unemployment remains the country’s most urgent threat, as Statistics South Africa puts the official unemployment rate at almost 32%. When discouraged workers are included, over 42% of working-age adults are not fully employed. Youth unemployment stands at more than 45%. Van Zyl says this is not only an economic failure, it is a social risk with long-term consequences.
‘President Ramaphosa must address unemployment with specific, scalable interventions such as wage subsidies, apprenticeships linked to industry demand, and labour-intensive infrastructure programmes that can absorb workers quickly.’
Inflation: Lower on Paper, Higher in Reality
Van Zyl says headline inflation has moderated and is projected to average around 3.5–3.8%, opening the door to potential interest rate relief. However, he says households experience something very different.
‘Food, fuel, transport, and medical costs — the largest components of middle- and lower-income budgets — continue to rise faster than average inflation. Medical inflation alone often exceeds 7–9%, while household debt levels remain elevated. South Africans are not asking for abstract macroeconomic victories. They want measures that reduce day-to-day pressure.’
Energy, Infrastructure and Logistics
Progress has been made in stabilising electricity supply, but the system remains fragile. Rail and port inefficiencies continue to undermine exports and investment.
‘The President’s address needs to be clear on electricity capacity targets, firm timelines for logistics reform, and accountability mechanisms for delivery. Investors and citizens alike are no longer persuaded by intentions, only outcomes,’ Van Zyl states.
Trade, Diplomacy and Economic Risk
Van Zyl suggests that South Africa’s foreign policy posture has become more visible and more assertive. He says that while principled diplomacy matters, economic consequences cannot be ignored.
‘Trade relationships, particularly with major markets, directly affect jobs in automotive manufacturing, agriculture, and mining. Diversification into African and Asian markets is essential, but slow. SONA must articulate how South Africa will protect jobs while navigating an increasingly polarised global environment.’
Van Zyl says South Africans are not asking for miracles, but merely momentum to catapult the country forward.
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