From New Year’s Resolutions to Oil Shocks: Markets Firm as Resources Lead and Global Risks Mount
Every year begins the same way: bold resolutions made somewhere between leftover Christmas pudding and a creeping sense of dread about January debit orders. This is the year people will finally use that gym membership instead of donating to it monthly. This is the year cigarettes will be given up for good. This is the year politics, war, and global chaos will somehow calm down. And every year, reality kicks in before February even arrives.
New Year’s Resolutions Meet a Hard Reality
New Year’s resolutions tend to cluster around health and control, bodies, habits, and finances, precisely because so much else feels uncontrollable. Worldwide, quitting smoking remains one of the most common promises people make to themselves, despite the country still having an estimated 8.6 million adult smokers. Reliable data on teenage smoking is scarce, but the shift is visible: traditional cigarettes have largely been replaced by vapes among younger users, creating a regulatory gap that lawmakers are now attempting to close. At the same time, gyms across the country are raising prices, confident that January enthusiasm will override cost concerns, at least in the short term.
Smoking, Vaping and a Regulatory Crackdown in the Making
In South Africa, lawmakers are pressing ahead with major changes to smoking regulation through the Control of Tobacco Products and Electronic Delivery Systems Bill, which has been under consideration since 2022.
While measures such as banning smoking in indoor public spaces and regulating sales to minors have drawn broad support, proposals around plain packaging have raised serious concerns.
SARS and the SAPS have warned that standardised packaging could make it easier for illicit traders to operate in a market where illegal cigarettes already dominate.
The experience of the Covid-era tobacco ban, which saw excise revenues collapse while consumption rose, continues to loom large over the debate.
A Tipping-Point Year for Global Politics
Overhanging these personal resolutions is a far more unstable global environment. According to political risk analyst Ian Bremmer, 2026 is shaping up as a tipping-point year not because of an imminent war between major powers, but because the United States itself is dismantling the global order it once built. Donald Trump’s return to power has accelerated a political revolution that is weakening institutional checks, reviving U.S. dominance over the Western Hemisphere, and establishing a transactional form of state capitalism. From Venezuela to Europe, from energy to artificial intelligence, geopolitics is no longer a background risk for markets — it is central to pricing.
JSE Climbs to January High as Risk Appetite Holds
South African equities nevertheless closed the week on a firm footing. The JSE All Share Index gained 0.96% to end at 118,110 points, extending recent gains and reaching its highest level since early January.
The market opened stronger and built momentum through the session, briefly touching an intraday high of 118,439 before easing slightly into the close. The move reinforced the view that risk appetite remains intact despite global political and economic uncertainty.
Resources Drive the Rally as Gold and Miners Shine
The rally was overwhelmingly resource-led. The sector surged 3.33%, once again acting as the backbone of the local market. Strength in bulk commodities, precious metals, and diversified miners followed a renewed uptick in global commodity prices, particularly gold and silver, which continued their multi-month run. Glencore was the standout among large caps, jumping more than 10% to reach a new 52-week high, while Anglo American, Gold Fields, and AngloGold Ashanti also delivered solid gains. In rand terms, gold prices remained near record levels, bolstering earnings prospects for local miners and reinforcing the dominance of resources on the JSE.
Financials and Retail Lag Amid Domestic Pressures
Financial shares lagged. The Financial 15 slipped 0.21% as investors pared exposure to banks and insurers, reflecting caution around interest rates, credit growth and domestic fiscal risks. Industrials were mixed. The broader All Share Industrials index closed marginally higher, but the Industrial 25 dipped slightly, weighed down by rand sensitivity and weak consumer demand. Retail stocks remained subdued, with Mr Price touching a new 52-week low, highlighting how uneven the recovery in household spending remains.
Mid-Caps Outperform as Market Breadth Improves
Mid-cap stocks significantly outperformed, rising 2.18%, while small caps also ended firmer. This points to a tentative broadening of the rally beyond heavyweight counters. Market breadth was constructive, with several stocks reaching new annual highs. Alongside Glencore, counters such as Motus, Datatec, Remgro, MTN, and Telkom printed fresh peaks, signalling renewed investor confidence in select industrial and telecom names.
Heavies such as Naspers and Prosus, however, weighed on the index as concerns around global technology valuations and Chinese regulatory risk persisted.
Rand Steady as Commodities Offset Fiscal and Rate Concerns
Trading activity remained concentrated in a small group of liquid counters, notably Naspers, Glencore and FirstRand. This concentration suggests that while sentiment has improved, conviction remains strongest in stocks with global earnings exposure and deep liquidity.
The rand was broadly stable, trading around R16.50 to the dollar, supported by firmer commodity prices but capped by global interest-rate uncertainty and local fiscal constraints.
Oil Prices Rise on Venezuela Seizure and Iran Unrest
Commodity markets continued to provide a supportive backdrop for South African assets. Gold extended its rally above $4,540 an ounce, with silver, platinum and palladium also posting strong gains. Brent crude edged higher, although oil prices remain well below recent highs, easing pressure on fuel prices and inflation.
Oil prices rose for a second consecutive day on Friday and were set for a third weekly gain as geopolitical risks moved sharply back into focus. Brent futures climbed to about $62.39 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate traded near $58.11. Prices jumped more than 3% on Thursday alone, reversing earlier declines as markets reassessed supply risks.
Energy Markets Reprice Geopolitical Risk
The primary trigger has been uncertainty surrounding Venezuela after US President Donald Trump ordered the seizure of President Nicolás Maduro and claimed control over the country’s oil sector. Washington has said it will oversee Venezuelan oil sales and revenues indefinitely, a move that has upended expectations around previously discounted crude exports. Oil majors and global trading houses, including Chevron, Vitol and Trafigura, are now competing for US government contracts to market millions of barrels of Venezuelan oil currently sitting in storage.
At the same time, civil unrest in Iran has intensified supply fears. A nationwide internet blackout was reported as protests spread across major cities, raising concerns about output disruptions from one of the world’s key producers. Added to this are ongoing worries that the Russia–Ukraine conflict could spill further into energy markets, particularly if Russian oil exports become direct targets.
Gym Fees Rise as Health Resolutions Drive Demand
Gyms are also capitalising on New Year’s resolve. Virgin Active, Planet Fitness and Moove have all adjusted prices for 2026 as demand for health and wellness remains strong. Gym fees now account for nearly 6% of household spending on recreation, sport and culture, having risen more than 20% year on year.
Virgin Active’s premium offerings now stretch well beyond R4,000 a month, Planet Fitness is expanding aggressively, and Moove is positioning itself as a flexible alternative for cost-conscious consumers.
Important Notice and Disclaimer
This article is provided for general information and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice as defined by the Financial Advisory and Intermediary Services Act, 2002 (FAIS Act). The content should not be relied upon as a basis for making any investment decisions.
Please consult with a licensed financial advisor to determine if such investments are appropriate for your individual circumstances.
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