JSE Slips Before Easter as Oil Volatility and Trump’s Iran Warning Unsettle Markets
The Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) ended Thursday’s session on a softer note, closing out a shortened trading week marked by geopolitical strain, volatile oil prices and mounting pressure on the global economy.
Investors moved cautiously ahead of the Easter long weekend, reducing exposure as developments in the Middle East, amplified by a sharply worded warning from U.S. president Donald Trump, unsettled energy markets and filtered through to inflation expectations worldwide.
Trump’s comments, directed at Iran over access to the Strait of Hormuz, stood out not only for their unusually blunt tone but also for their market impact. The remarks heightened concerns about potential disruptions to one of the world’s most critical oil shipping routes, triggering sharp movements in crude prices earlier last week. Although reports of possible ceasefire discussions later tempered some of that volatility, uncertainty remains a dominant theme across financial markets.
In South Africa, the impacts of global developments are already being observed. Rising fuel prices, changing inflation expectations, and constraints on household spending are influencing economic conditions, contributing to a subdued trading environment locally.
Market closes lower in quiet trade
The benchmark All Share Index (ALSI) declined 0.41% to 116,123 points, while the Top 40 index fell 0.44% to 108,331. Activity was muted, reflecting a typical pre-holiday slowdown as investors opted to stay on the sidelines rather than carry risk through an extended break.
Losses were spread across most sectors, with industrial shares leading the decline. The All Share Industrials index dropped 0.70%, while the Industrial 25 index fell by a similar margin. Financial stocks edged lower, with the Financial 15 index slipping 0.15%, and resource shares declined 0.39%.
Mid-cap and small-cap stocks showed relative stability, easing just 0.11% and 0.35% respectively. The SA Listed Property index also recorded a modest decline of 0.26%.
Despite the weaker finish, the ALSI remains marginally positive for the year, up 0.25% year-to-date, indicating that gains earlier in the year have largely held.
Gains in select counters
A handful of stocks bucked the broader trend. Alphamin led the day’s gains, rising 6.15% to R15.19. British American Tobacco climbed 2.82% to R988.62, making tobacco the strongest-performing sector.
African Rainbow Minerals added 1.96% to R243.14, while Sasol rose 1.89% to R208.08, supported in part by firmer oil prices. Anheuser-Busch InBev also advanced 1.74% to R1,205.56.
Heavyweights drag on index
On the downside, index heavyweight Naspers fell 2.13% to R870.41, exerting notable pressure on the overall market. Gold Fields declined 1.75%, while Pepkor and Omnia each dropped more than 1.5%.
WeBuyCars and Hosken Consolidated Investments were among the steepest fallers, both losing over 3% during the session.
Trading activity remained concentrated in mining shares. AngloGold Ashanti recorded the highest value traded at more than R2.37 billion, followed by Gold Fields and Naspers. FirstRand also saw significant volumes, with over 13 million shares traded, valued at more than R1.16 billion.
Currency strengthens, commodities mixed
Precious metals were slightly weaker. Gold slipped 0.20% to $4,680 per ounce, while platinum and palladium also declined. In rand terms, gold dropped 1.02% to R78,631 per ounce.
Oil markets remained volatile. Brent crude traded at $109.33 per barrel after earlier climbing above $110, reflecting ongoing concerns about supply disruptions linked to tensions in the Middle East and uncertainty around shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Oil shock filters into local economy
These increases are feeding through to transport, production and logistics costs, placing pressure on both households and businesses. As fuel costs rise, they affect a wide range of goods and services, contributing to broader inflation.
Economists have pointed to the risk of inflation moving above 4% if elevated oil prices persist. This could limit the South African Reserve Bank’s room to adjust interest rates, as higher inflation typically requires tighter monetary conditions.
Growth forecasts are already reflecting these pressures. While the South African Reserve Bank maintains a projection of around 1.4%, international estimates have been revised closer to 1.1%, highlighting the influence of global factors on the domestic economy.
Pressure builds across food system
South Africa relies heavily on imported fertiliser, making the sector particularly sensitive to global price shifts. While current food supply remains stable, as crops already on shelves were planted months ago, sustained cost increases could affect future planting decisions.
Fertiliser prices have risen sharply in recent weeks, adding to concerns about longer-term food price pressures. Although immediate shortages are not expected, the cost base of food production is increasing.
Beauty sector continues to expand
Amid broader economic strain, South Africa’s beauty and skincare market continues to grow. The sector expanded by 7% in 2024, reaching approximately $3.9 billion, or more than R65 billion.
International brands dominate the market, accounting for around 90% of sales, though local demand remains strong. Retailer Clicks reported a 7.4% increase in beauty and personal care sales in its 2025 financial year, with the category now generating more revenue than pharmaceuticals.
Consumer behaviour is shifting, particularly among younger shoppers. A survey of Gen Z consumers found that 94% purchase skincare products, with more than half buying through social media platforms. There is also a growing focus on product ingredients and scientifically backed formulations.
Road safety enforcement intensifies
As the Easter long weekend began, authorities increased road safety operations across the country. The Road Traffic Management Corporation reported 934 arrests for drunk driving between Thursday and Saturday, a 39% increase compared with the same period last year.
A total of 1,215 vehicles were impounded, up from 923 previously, largely due to permit violations. At the same time, the number of unroadworthy vehicles identified declined by nearly 30%.
Notice and Disclaimer
This article is provided for general information and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice as defined by the Financial Advisory and Intermediary Services Act, 2002 (FAIS Act). The content should not be relied upon as a basis for making any investment decisions. Please consult with a licensed financial advisor to determine if such investments are appropriate for your individual circumstances. Everest Wealth Management (Pty) Ltd is an authorised Financial Services Provider (FSP 795) and a registered credit provider NCRCP 21504.