Oil jitters ease as JSE firms, rate risks linger, R14 coffee chain brews expansion — and Japan tells shoppers to keep calm over toilet paper

A pause in escalating tensions in the Middle East helped steady global markets and lift the JSE, but economists warn the relief may be short-lived as inflation risks persist. While policymakers weigh the prospect of higher-for-longer interest rates, a South African budget coffee chain is expanding its footprint, and in Japan, authorities are urging consumers not to panic-buy toilet paper as war fears ripple into everyday behaviour.

Oil Jitters Ease as JSE Firms (Oil pump)

Markets: Resources lift JSE, rand strengthens

The JSE closed modestly higher, with gains in mining counters supporting the broader market while weakness in consumer and technology shares capped the advance.

The FTSE/JSE All Share Index rose 0.35% to 110,460 points, recovering from an intraday low of 106,179 and trading close to its session high of 111,422. The index remains under pressure over longer periods, down 11.75% over three months and 4.64% over the past year.

Resource stocks led the gains, with the Resource 10 index up 1.25%, supported by advances in diversified miners and precious metals counters. This came despite a pullback in the gold price, which fell more than 1% to $4,300 an ounce.

Platinum futures fell below $1,900 per ounce, their weakest since December 2025.

Palladium prices plunged $1,400 per ounce, their lowest since early October, as a broad metal sell-off deepened amid the Middle East conflict.

Among major stocks, Anglo American climbed 6.02%, Richemont gained 4.52%, and BHP rose 3.54%. Boxer Retail jumped 6.06%, while Pick n Pay added 4.23% and Ninety One advanced 4.9%.

Financial shares edged higher, with the Financial 15 index up 0.09%, while industrial counters lagged. The Industrial 25 index slipped 0.07%, and the broader industrial index fell 0.12%.

Mid- and small-cap shares underperformed, with the Mid Cap index down 0.48% and the Small Cap index losing 0.87%. The SA Property index declined 0.54%.

On the downside, Webuycars dropped 7.93%, and Thungela Resources fell 7.53%. Optasia, Santam, and Datatec also recorded losses, while Mr Price and Karoooo weakened.

Trading was concentrated in mining and energy counters, with AngloGold Ashanti, Gold Fields and Sasol among the most actively traded by value.

The rand strengthened against major currencies, with the dollar trading at R16.95, down 0.83%. The euro and pound also weakened against the local currency.

Globally, markets were mixed. Japan’s Nikkei traded at 52,500, while US indices, including the S&P 500 and Nasdaq held near recent levels.

Brent crude rose around 4% up to $103 a barrel, while gold and silver prices declined.

Global tensions reshape rate outlook

The South African Reserve Bank may face a more difficult interest rate decision as global tensions feed into inflation risks.

The shift follows developments in the Middle East after US President Donald Trump said planned military strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure would be delayed for five days following what he described as productive talks. The announcement eased immediate supply concerns and triggered a sharp drop in oil prices, alongside gains in equities and bonds.

Despite the temporary relief, economists warned that volatility in oil markets could still feed into inflation.

Wichard Cilliers, head of market risk at TreasuryONE, said central banks may be forced into a more hawkish stance if inflation accelerates due to higher energy costs.

Stephan Potgieter, chief executive of BetterBond, said uncertainty linked to tensions between the US and Iran could keep interest rates higher for longer, placing further pressure on households already dealing with rising living costs.

Johann Els, chief economist at PSG, said expectations for a near-term rate cut have faded.

The Monetary Policy Committee is very unlikely to cut rates this week in the current environment,” he said, noting that earlier expectations had been supported by February inflation of 3%.

He warned that petrol prices could rise by about R6 per litre in April, potentially pushing inflation to around 4.2%, compared with earlier forecasts of about 3.1%.

Economists said rising fuel and transport costs could complicate the Reserve Bank’s efforts to keep inflation within its target range, with the risk that rates remain unchanged for longer or increase if pressures intensify.

Budget coffee chain plan

Amid a constrained consumer environment, budget coffee chain Xpresso Café is expanding its footprint, leaning into a model built on affordability.

Founded by Clyde and Nicolene Elhadad, the business plans to open 20 new stores in 2026, with a focus on Johannesburg and Pretoria. The group currently operates about 80 outlets across major urban centres.

The brand’s model is simple: every item on the menu is priced at R14.

The founders said the concept’s flexibility has enabled expansion across retail, office, and convenience locations, supported by a growing network of franchise partners.

Xpresso began nearly a decade ago as a single store, following the founders’ launch of their first business from a home garage 18 years earlier. The coffee chain initially offered all items at R10, increasing prices gradually to R14 over time.

The company said it is prioritising measured growth, focusing on ensuring each outlet remains profitable and sustainable.

Plans for the year ahead include increased customer engagement and investment in brand visibility, as the business looks to strengthen its position in the local market.

Japan urges calm as toilet paper fears resurface

In Japan, authorities have moved to reassure the public after signs of panic buying emerged, with some consumers stockpiling toilet paper and other household essentials amid concerns over the Middle East conflict.

The government urged shoppers not to overreact, calling for rational purchasing decisions based on accurate information.

Posts on social media suggested shortages at some stores, with users sharing images of empty shelves and stockpiled goods ranging from toiletries to pet food and beverages.

The response echoes previous episodes of panic buying in Japan, including during the 1973 oil shock, the 2011 earthquake and tsunami, and the Covid-19 pandemic.

Industry officials said there is no supply risk. According to the Japan Household Paper Industry Association, about 97% of the country’s toilet paper is produced domestically using recycled materials, with no reliance on imports from the Middle East.

The group said production remains stable and capacity is sufficient to meet demand, even if consumption rises temporarily.

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