Rand Strength, JSE Decline, Visa Restrictions, and Smelter Relief Shape South Africa’s Markets
South Africa’s markets and industries faced a mixed day on Friday, with domestic and global developments driving investor caution.
The JSE All Share Index slipped, the rand held its strongest levels since 2022, visa restrictions tightened for South African passport holders, and the government moved to support struggling smelters amid rising electricity costs.
Investors and businesses are now adjusting to a combination of financial volatility, policy interventions, and changing international travel dynamics.
JSE All Share Index Declines as Mid-Caps and Resources Retreat
The JSE All Share Index (ALSI) closed at 120,170 on Friday, down 0.58% from Thursday’s 120,870.
The market opened at 120,612 and traded in a range of 119,758 to 121,042. Over the past week, the ALSI declined 0.58%, though year-to-date gains remain at 21.77%. The 52-week range spans 77,165 to 121,630.
Sector performance was uneven. Mid-cap stocks recorded the steepest drop, down 1.20%, while small caps gained 0.44%.
Resource stocks fell 1.83%, the Industrial 25 index dropped 0.40%, and Financial 15 components rose 0.32%. Industrial Support Services led sector gains at 5.65%, followed by Alternative Energy (4.46%) and Health Care Providers (2.76%).
At the individual stock level, Ninety 1L and Ninety 1P led top 100 gains, rising 7.55% and 7.18%, supported by DRDGOLD, WEBUYCARS, and Karoo.
Conversely, Sasol recorded the largest decline at 11.83%, followed by Thungela at -7.04% and Alphamin at -6.94%. Other decliners included Valterra, Richemont, and Northam. Napers-N and Valterra were the most actively traded by value, each exceeding one million shares and trade values over R2 billion.
Rand Strength Opens Opportunities for Offshore Transfers
The rand traded at 16.46 to the US dollar, down 0.39% from Thursday’s close, yet it remains at its strongest levels since 2022. The currency’s rally, up nearly 13-14% in 2025, has created opportunities for South Africans looking to move funds abroad or bring capital into the country. Analysts suggest the rand could strengthen further to around R14 to the dollar if current trends persist.
Financial service providers such as Future Forex highlight the advantages of the current environment, noting that traditional banks often charge hidden fees and exchange rate spreads of 2-3% per transaction.
By leveraging technology and economies of scale, firms like Future Forex aim to reduce costs by up to 50% for individuals and 30% for businesses, while providing full transparency and personalised service.
Commodities and Cryptocurrencies Show Mixed Performance
Commodity prices were mixed. Gold in USD remained largely unchanged at $4,594.83 per ounce, while platinum fell 0.75% to $2,322.70 and palladium declined as well. Brent crude traded slightly lower at $63.93 a barrel.
Cryptocurrencies recorded modest movements. Bitcoin slipped 0.05% to $95,384.31, while Ethereum gained 2.01% to $3,357.13. Binance Coin, Litecoin, and Polkadot posted small intraday gains, whereas Solana and Ripple experienced minor declines.
International Markets Reflect Caution Amid Mixed Data
Global markets were similarly mixed. Japan’s Nikkei 225 closed at 53,936, down 0.20% from its previous session, while the S&P 500 traded at 6,940. European indices showed only minor fluctuations, with Germany’s DAX at 25,274 and France’s CAC-40 at 8,244.
Investors continue to closely monitor inflation trends, central bank policy shifts, and geopolitical developments that impact global trade and capital flows.
Visa Restrictions Tighten for South African Passport Holders
South African passport holders have lost visa-free access to five countries, with the Henley Passport Index showing access now limited to 101 countries, down from 106 last year. This places South Africa’s passport 48th globally, between Qatar and Belize.
Beyond these losses, applicants face heightened scrutiny for major destinations such as the US and Europe. US B-1/B-2 visa applicants now encounter longer processing times, additional documentation, and proof of financial stability.
Schengen visa applications have also seen higher rejection rates, rising from 18.6% to 26.6% between 2015 and 2024. Changes in fee structures, digital surveillance, and longer processing times contribute to increased administrative burdens, highlighting growing global mobility restrictions for African travellers.
Government Moves to Support Energy-Intensive Smelters
Domestically, government action aims to preserve critical industrial capacity. The Department of Trade, Industry and Competition (DTIC) gazetted block exemptions allowing distressed firms to collectively negotiate electricity pricing agreements with Eskom without violating the Competition Act.
The move responds to widespread job losses and smelter closures driven by high energy costs. Industry leaders warn that without competitive electricity arrangements, retrenchments are imminent. Electricity accounts for as much as 40% of total production costs for energy-intensive firms, with Eskom tariffs having increased 937% between 2007 and 2024, far outpacing inflation of 155% over the same period.
The exemptions allow large industrial users to secure discounted electricity, access alternative supply, and optimise energy use. However, companies say urgent action is required.
Nellis Bester, chair of the Ferroalloy Producers Association, said: “At this stage, nothing is in writing, and we hope that something will materialise before the end of February. All smelters will be contemplating retrenchments from March to April in the absence of a competitive energy deal.”
The ferrochrome sector, a cornerstone of South Africa’s industrial development for over 80 years, has been severely impacted. Recent closures and production halts have put thousands of jobs at risk, highlighting the broader challenges faced by energy-intensive industries.
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