Markets Steady, Energy Legacy Questioned, Crime Syndicates Adapt, and Vehicle Sales Signal Resilience
South African markets and policymakers face a familiar contradiction: strong headline numbers masking deeper structural pressures. The JSE ended yesterday firmly higher, lifted by a powerful rally in mining stocks, yet the gains were narrow and defensive in nature. At the same time, new data has reignited debate over Eskom’s leadership legacy, organised crime syndicates are increasingly targeting the country’s biodiversity, and early 2026 vehicle sales suggest domestic demand remains surprisingly resilient despite global uncertainty.
Markets: JSE firmer, but rally driven by resources
The JSE closed Tuesday’s session higher, with gains largely concentrated in the resources sector as investors continued to favour hard assets amid global uncertainty. The All Share Index (ALSI) advanced 1.36% to 120,516, while the Top 40 Tradeable Index also gained 1.36%.
Mid-cap stocks outperformed, with the Mid Cap Index rising 1.54%, while the Small Cap Index added 1.01%. However, market breadth remained uneven, reinforcing the view that the rally was selective rather than broad-based.
Mining stocks lead on stronger metals prices
Mining shares dominated the session as precious and industrial metals surged. The Resource 10 Index jumped 4.20%, supported by sharp gains across gold, platinum group metals, and iron ore-linked stocks. Gold prices climbed 2.61% to $5,074 an ounce, while silver rose 3.31%, platinum gained 3.9%, and palladium added nearly 2%.
Heavyweight counters posted strong advances, with Kumba Iron Ore up 6.76%, Anglo American rising 5.78%, AngloGold Ashanti gaining 5.20%, Impala Platinum adding 5.07%, and Gold Fields up 4.18%. The Precious Metals and Mining sector advanced 4.28%, while Industrial Metals and Mining rose 4.26%.
Industrials and tech lag as risk appetite remains constrained
In contrast, industrial shares underperformed. The All Share Industrials Index slipped 0.44%, while the Industrial 25 declined 0.55%, weighed down by offshore-exposed counters and technology stocks.
Richemont fell 2.24%, and Bidcorp lost 1.88%, while Naspers and Prosus both closed 1.8% lower amid pressure on global tech valuations.
Financials steady, property marginally firmer
Financial stocks recorded modest gains, with the Financial 15 Index edging up 0.31%. Banks and insurers traded largely sideways, as investors remained cautious ahead of clearer signals on interest rate trajectories and domestic economic momentum.
Property shares showed mild improvement, with the SA Property Index rising 1.07%. Gains were selective, reflecting ongoing concerns around funding costs and balance sheet strength rather than a broad sector re-rating.
Rand firmer, but commodities offset currency strength
The rand strengthened modestly, with the currency trading around R15.92 to the dollar in early Wednesday trade, compared with R15.97 at the previous close. While a firmer rand can weigh on rand-hedge stocks, the impact was more than offset by strong dollar-denominated commodity prices.
On a year-to-date basis, the rand remains significantly weaker, continuing to provide support for exporters and mining companies despite short-term fluctuations.
Global backdrop reinforces defensive positioning
Global markets were mixed, with Asian equities under pressure, particularly Japan’s Nikkei, while U.S. and European markets remained elevated but volatile. This uneven offshore backdrop continued to drive demand for defensive assets locally.
Alternative assets reflected the same caution. Bitcoin traded marginally higher on the day but remained sharply lower year to date, while broader crypto markets lagged. The divergence between strong gold prices and weak crypto performance highlighted a clear shift toward traditional safe havens.
Eskom data casts harsh light on De Ruyter era
Newly published Eskom data has placed renewed scrutiny on former chief executive Andre de Ruyter’s tenure, showing that load-shedding intensified sharply while he was at the helm.
According to Eskom’s Medium-Term System Adequacy Outlook for 2026 to 2030, load-shedding rose from 1,296 GWh in De Ruyter’s first year to 16,652 GWh in the year he departed.
De Ruyter has previously described this outcome as a “black mark” on his legacy, arguing that he inherited ageing and unreliable infrastructure following decades of underinvestment.
He defended his decision to prioritise reliability maintenance, which required taking generating units offline and temporarily worsening load-shedding to prevent a complete system collapse.
However, critics within government have rejected this framing. Electricity Minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa has said De Ruyter’s appointment reflected a mismatch between skills and Eskom’s technical challenges, while Mineral Resources and Energy Minister Gwede Mantashe accused him of fuelling instability through unsubstantiated claims of sabotage and corruption.
Under current CEO Dan Marokane, Eskom has reported a sharp decline in load-shedding, falling from 2,404 GWh in 2024 to just 390 GWh in 2025, with no rolling blackouts recorded for months — a turnaround the utility has framed as a new era of energy security.
Biodiversity crime syndicates emerge as a growing threat
Organised crime syndicates are increasingly targeting South Africa’s natural heritage, with species such as abalone, West Coast rock lobster, sharks and rare succulents now worth more than rhino horn on illicit markets.
According to CapeNature’s Senior Manager for Marine and Coastal Operations, Pierre de Villiers, these groups operate in a coordinated, mafia-style manner, treating biodiversity as a high-value export commodity.
Abalone remains one of the most lucrative targets, driven by strong demand in East Asian markets. Rock lobster is also heavily targeted, often through illegal harvesting of undersized specimens sold locally.
On land, the illegal trade in succulents and ornamental plants has escalated sharply, with some species stripped from the veld now commanding extraordinary prices internationally.
De Villiers warned that reduced intelligence capacity and budget constraints have weakened enforcement efforts, increasing the risk of local extinctions.
While joint operations involving SAPS, fisheries officials and the SANDF have yielded arrests and seizures, he stressed that true success is measured by species survival, not enforcement statistics.
Vehicle sales start 2026 on a strong footing
Despite global uncertainty, South Africa’s vehicle market has started 2026 on a positive note. New vehicle sales rose 7.5% year-on-year in January to 50,073 units, according to Naamsa / the Automotive Business Council. Passenger vehicle sales increased 7.1%, while light commercial vehicle sales surged 11%, rebounding from a weak 2025.
The performance reflects improving domestic demand conditions, supported by moderating inflation, stable macroeconomic variables, and a resilient consumer base. While medium and heavy vehicle sales declined, Naamsa said the outlook remains constructive, even as export competitiveness is tested by rising trade barriers abroad.
Toyota retained its position as market leader, followed by Suzuki, Volkswagen and Hyundai, reinforcing the sector’s role as a bellwether for consumer confidence.
Notice and Disclaimer
This article is provided for general information and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice as defined by the Financial Advisory and Intermediary Services Act, 2002 (FAIS Act). The content should not be relied upon as a basis for making any investment decisions.
Please consult with a licensed financial advisor to determine if such investments are appropriate for your individual circumstances.
Everest Wealth Management (Pty) Ltd is an authorised Financial Services Provider (FSP 795) and a registered credit provider NCRCP 21504.